ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Massive political rallies coupled with persistent mudslinging by the political opposition broadcast live on local television gives the appearance here that an election season is in full swing. But, at least for now, Pakistan's parliamentary elections are more than a year away.
One scandal after another, some reaching the the country's Supreme Court, have plagued President Asif Ali Zardari and his the ruling party, the Pakistan's People's Party (PPP) in recent weeks, and have given rise to calls for the resignation of the country’s leadership and hopes for an early election.
And all this is taking place amid a widespread conspiracy theory that the army is lending a hidden hand to make it happen. Despite the opposition’s slander, however, the government and many of the opposing political parties agree on one thing: They are not interested in a military take-over.
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“This is a great departure in our history. It looks like this consensus is no longer going to offer the military establishment the opportunity or option to use one section of politicians against another,” said Rashid Rehman, editor of the Daily Times, an English-language newspaper in Pakistan.
Rehman referred to the 1990s when the PPP and its main opponent at the time, the Pakistan Muslim League-N, with the help of the military, took turns dismissing each other’s governments to ascend to the throne themselves.
But analysts say this current consensus is “weak and tentative” and doesn’t mean the PPP can breath a sigh of relief or even that civil-military relations are about to become more favorable toward the government.
It only means that an army coup, overt or covert, would need to be orchestrated more carefully than ever before. Some Pakistanis believe such a plan is already underway. The story goes, according to the country's chattering class, that the military will rely on the Supreme Court, which can recommend the dismissal of the president.The theory may have legs. The Supreme Court is already investigating accusations that the government sought Washington's help in preventing a military take-over of the Zaradari administration. In return it offers to eliminate a wing of the military's spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, that is believed to maintain relations with militants, and other changes to Pakistan's security infrastructure.
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