PHOTO | AFP | UNMISS Locals and foreign nationals gather at Juba International Airport as they wait for flights out of the South Sudanese capital Juba as fighting intensifies.   UNMISS
There are fears the fighting in South Sudan, which started last Sunday at a military base in Juba, could trigger a full-blown civil war in the world’s newest state unless a political deal is struck.
Even though calm has returned to Juba, the United Nations had by Friday reported there were 14 separate sites of fighting or civil unrest and 34,000 civilians sheltering in or around UN bases, while US President Barack Obama warned that the future of the country was at risk.
After a week of accusations and counter-accusations in which President Salva Kiir accused former Vice-President Riek Machar of plotting a coup — something Dr Machar denied — it is still unclear what sparked the fighting.
Dr Machar, who is in hiding, has in the past week called for the ouster of President Kiir and insisted he was being targeted for trying to restore democracy in South Sudan.
There has been tension since President Kiir sacked his cabinet in July, including Dr Machar, who was then his vice-president. This stoked fears of ethnic division between the two dominant ethnic groups: Mr Kiir’s Dinka community and Dr Machar’s Nuer group.
So far, more than 700 people have been killed, with some reports confirming the ethnic dimension of the fighting. More than 10 ex-ministers have been arrested in connection with the attempted coup.
One such instance was the massacre of more than 20 people, mostly Dinkas, in a UN camp in Akobo, Jonglei State. At least two UN peacekeepers were killed when the armed men, thought to be Nuers, broke into the camp where the deceased civilians had sought protection.
The Human Rights Watch has also accused government forces of targeted killings of ethnic Nuers in Juba in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt.
POLITICAL DIFFERENCES
President Kiir and Dr Machar have had longstanding political differences.
Dr Machar, who has long been angling for the top job even before the death of the founding Sudan Peoples Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) leader, Dr John Garang in 2005, has frequently accused President Kiir of failing to tackle corruption, nepotism and insecurity.
This may have led to the sacking of the then vice-president in July, especially after he openly criticised the government while on a UK tour.
Since then, politicians loyal to Dr Machar, including some of those who were sacked in July, have made clear their intention to remove President Kiir from the helm of the ruling SPLM.
The disgruntled team includes former Secretary-General Pagan Amum and Rebecca Nyandeng, the widow of Dr Garang.
The group, at a press conference on December 6, warned President Kiir to call an emergency meeting of the party’s political bureau, the highest decision making organ, or face undisclosed consequences.
They hoped to dislodge him from the helm of the party ahead of a general election in 2015.
However, President Kiir decided to call for a meeting of the National Liberation Council to pass the party’s manifesto and the constitution, among other documents. After failing to secure enough support to shut the meeting, Dr Machar’s group boycotted some sessions.
It was on the last day of this meeting, during which Dr Machar’s and his group failed to show up, that the fateful events of last Sunday started.
First, gunmen reportedly fired shots into the Nyakuron Cultural Centre, after President Kiir concluded the meeting at 6pm.
Three hours later, gunfire exploded at the presidential guards unit at Gieda in the capital. It quickly spread to the military headquarters to the north of Juba and to the presidential compound at the town centre.
Contacted, a family member close to Dr Machar told the Sunday Nation that the former vice-president is said to have been in his home when the shooting started, but was immediately evacuated to an undisclosed location by some of his bodyguards.
The source claimed the bodyguards who remained in the residence were killed by SPLA soldiers who came looking for Dr Machar.
“These soldiers came to my house on Tuesday, but luckily I was still held up in Addis Ababa, where I had gone for some private business,” Mr Tungwar said after he safely landed in Nairobi on Wednesday. He alleged the soldiers stole electronics and cash from his house.
However, the musician’s brother and two of his cousins, who were in a nearby compound, were allegedly shot dead by government soldiers.
A day after the failed coup, a military divisional commander hailing from the Nuer ethnic group, Gen Peter Gatdet, defected in Bor, the Jonglei state capital, and took over military bases. Yesterday, there was fighting in the town as government forces sought to recapture the town.
Events in the past week have raised questions about the future of the world’s newest state, which gained independence from Sudan on July 9, 2011, after a protracted civil war.
“Whether it was a coup attempt or security forces mishandling reassignment in their quarters, the SPLM has tarnished its reputation by putting innocent lives at risk,” said political commentator Martin Garang Aher, blaming politicians for the current power struggle.
Having fought a war of independence for more than two decades since 1983 until a 2005 peace deal signed in Nairobi ended the civil strife and paved way for formal independence, another civil war could tear apart South Sudan.
Although oil-rich, the majority of the country lives in poverty. Much of that disturbing legacy is understandably blamed on the decades of war with Sudan. And this explains why another war is just too costly for South Sudan.
In the words of Prof Jok Madut, the deadly events that have characterised the power struggle “have all spread fear in the population, leaving them hostage to the madness of a few power-hungry men”.
“The damage of this incident on future national cohesion, image of the country and its efforts to encourage investment from outside will be even far greater,” he said.
In the early days of the clashes, the ethnic dimension was less pronounced. But as days go by, and as politicians continue to spread their political agenda, the real risk of ethnic war is just on the horizon.
Eyewitnesses in Bor describe horrible scenes reminiscent of the 1991 split in the then rebel movement, during which thousands of civilians were maimed in what is infamously know as the Bor massacre.
By then, Dr Machar levelled the same charges of corruption, insecurity and poor human rights records against the then charismatic rebel leader Dr Garang.
Dr Machar later collaborated with the Khartoum government and President Omar al-Bashir even appointed him Minister for Transport in 1997. Dr Machar rejoined Dr Garang in 2002 and his profile rose after the signing of the peace deal in 2005.
After the eath of Dr Garang, Mr Kiir took over and appointed Dr Machar his vice-president in 2006, a post he held after independence until July 2013.
As South Sudan apparently rediscovers the same dark path, the victims are the civilians, just as it was in 1991.